Four future scenarios for maritime transport in Europe

The starting point of the maritime traffic study in Europe in the 2040 Horizon has been to identify the trends which have the highest degree of consensus:

• Economic trends: expected growth in developing economies, in contrast to stagnation in advanced economies; the increase of the urban population or the development of new market niches such as the blue economy.
• Environmental trends: the fight against climate change and decarbonisation and the reduction of emissions in all activities; the commitment to circular economy and the use of cleaner energy sources or the increase in electric mobility and micro mobility.
• Social trends: among which stand out the “servitization” of the economy (substitution of physical goods for virtual ones, property by use); the aging of the population, especially in Europe, and the employment reduction or the growth of tourism (if the pandemic subsides).
• Trends linked to supply chains, such as the increasing appearance of global disruptions; the development of electronic commerce and circular economy or the role additive printing or autonomous transport can take.
• Trends in maritime transport, mainly the development of mega-ships, the future appearance of new routes, the increasing concentration of operators or the development of digitalisation and automation in the sector.

To construct the scenarios, the two factors that are considered most sensitive for the future were taken into account. On the one hand, the geopolitical and global growth context in which we will progress, and on the other, the ability of European society to move towards new, more sustainable models at a technological, environmental, social and productive level.

Graphically, this can be represented by coordinate axes, where the X (abscissa) represents global economic evolution, based on stability and cooperation between countries, and the Y (ordinate) represents Europe's ability to lead the transition to a sustainable society / economy transition towards a sustainable society/economy.

As a result of combining these two axes, the four maritime traffic scenarios in Europe for 2040 set out in the IV Strategic Plan of the Port of Barcelona begin to be configured, once adapted to its reality:

• Global prosperity scenario: Europe would emerge as a dynamic region within a stable and increasingly globalized global economic context. Europe's relative contribution to the world's GDP would decline, but the European Union would continue to be important and its export industries would remain competitive, while evolving towards sustainability. Leadership in sustainable technologies would become, in this scenario, one of the pillars of European companies with an international presence.
• Scenario with a resurgent Europe: within a global context marked by instability, Europe would focus on reforms towards sustainability. Dependence on imports from third countries would be reduced, especially for critical technologies, and the European energy system would shift towards self-sufficiency and sustainability. European industry would gain competitiveness in the world thanks to the innovation of its industries and the sustainability of its products.
• Scenario with a decadent Europe: in this third stage, Europe would stagnate in a world in continuous advance. Driven by global inertia, Europe would continue to grow, but at very slow rates. The lack of reforms and innovation would make European industries less competitive. As a consequence, it would resist with its historically accumulated wealth and positioning, but would depend on third countries for imports, technology and energy. The contribution of the European economy to the global whole would decline rapidly.
• Global stagnation scenario: the global situation in this fourth and last scenario would be characterized by instability, trade wars, misalignments in the fight against climate change, and political and military conflicts. The European integration process would come to a standstill and tensions between the members of the European Union would intensify. The political situation would make the transition to a sustainable energy system difficult and the competitive position of its production industries, such as automotive, technology and chemicals, would present difficulties.